India vs China Population: A Projected 63.7 Million Gap in 2026

India’s projected population is larger: about 1.477 billion people versus China’s 1.413 billion on 1 July 2026. That puts India ahead by approximately 63.7 million, or 4.51% of China’s population, calculated from the figures below.

For a spreadsheet or public comparison page, use a fixed reference date rather than two live population counters. This table uses the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 medium projection, as reproduced by Worldometer—not a census count or an October 2026 live estimate.

India and China population table

Total population, both sexes and all ages, as of 1 July 2026

Sources: Worldometer’s India population table and China population table. Both identify 1 July as the reference date and the UN’s 2024 revision as their underlying source.

The full numbers preserve the published data for calculations. Their single-person precision does not mean that every resident was counted on that date. WPP draws on censuses, vital registration and surveys; in the 2024 revision, 2024–2100 figures are projections. UN source overview · WPP 2024 summary, Figure 1.1 notes

China’s statistical coverage also matters: the UN population dataset excludes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan from the China entry. Keep that scope note with a published comparison rather than silently adding other rows to China’s total. UNFPA demographic notes

Calculate the gap from unrounded values

If India’s population is in spreadsheet cell B2 and China’s is in B3:

The denominator is important: “4.51% larger” uses China’s population as the baseline. It is not India’s share of the combined population.

The same source tables give July 2025 projections of 1,463,865,525 for India and 1,416,096,094 for China—a projected gap of about 47.8 million, compared with 63.7 million in 2026. The projected gap therefore widens by approximately 15.9 million over that year. These are comparisons within the same WPP revision, not a combination of national releases with different dates. India series · China series

Prepare a file readers can interpret

Use one row per country and reference date. This sample CSV contains the two sourced projections above:

country,iso3,reference_date,population_people,data_status,source_revision
India,IND,2026-07-01,1476625576,medium_projection,WPP2024
China,CHN,2026-07-01,1412914089,medium_projection,WPP2024

Keep the population field numeric: no thousands separators, “billion” suffixes or embedded footnotes. Apply readable number formatting in the displayed table, while retaining the unrounded values underneath.

If you build a longer series directly from the UN download files, select Total Population, as of 1 July and use the medium variant for projected years. That indicator is supplied in thousands, so multiply by 1,000 before placing it in a column named population_people. Do not apply that conversion to the Worldometer figures above, which are already expressed in people.

For publication:

• Name the comparison precisely: “India and China population, 1 July 2026—WPP 2024 medium projection.”
• Keep provenance attached: identify UN DESA Population Division as the original source and Worldometer as the provider used for these rows; retain links to both country tables.
• Check the public view: confirm that population sorts numerically and that the date, projection status and China coverage note remain visible.
• Use a zero baseline for a two-country bar chart. A truncated axis would exaggerate a difference of roughly 4.5% between two similar-sized totals. This follows ONS guidance on chart axes.

If you later add historical estimates or future years, keep their status explicit and use a consistent source revision throughout. For a broader country ranking, see the disclosures a public ranking table needs.